Albanese could learn from Howard when it comes to Indonesia

Indonesian president-elect Prabowo Subianto visiting Australia before he has even been inaugurated is a positive sign. But the history of the bilateral relationship is that it grows closer or more distant based on what the countries do together, rather than the documents they sign.

If Prime Minister Anthony Albanese really wants to build the strategic partnership with Indonesia that his policy declarations call for, he needs to follow John Howard’s model of engaging Jakarta. That is: look for a big sweeping gesture of cooperation and leave the joint declarations behind.

To Australia’s north lies the world’s third largest democracy, a nation of immense significance that remains surprisingly unfamiliar to many Australians. Beyond the holiday hotspot of Bali (visited by half a million Aussies each year), Indonesia  — with its 275 million (mostly Muslim) population  — is a dynamic and intricate society that demands far greater attention and understanding. Yet, despite its proximity, Indonesia remains Australia’s regional blind spot.

This oversight is particularly concerning, given Indonesia’s pivotal role in regional stability and economic prosperity. History has shown this relationship is delicate; if not handled with care, it can quickly sour.

The visit by Prabowo (a former army general and current Minister for Defence) underscores that the relationship between Australia and Indonesia is currently on solid ground, despite —  as he claims —  the ‘ups and downs’ of the past. However, it also serves as a reminder that Australia cannot afford to be complacent. Howard understood this well.

Contrary to one of Paul Keating’s final remarks as prime minister, suggesting that Asian leaders would not engage with Howard, Indonesia was the first country Howard visited as prime minister.

In September 1996, he met with President Suharto, reassuring his hosts that Australia’s relationship with its closest neighbour enjoyed bipartisan support. Howard gained confidence in strengthening ties across education, trade, security and defence, and a key outcome of his visit was the signing of a new security agreement.

However, this relationship was severely tested in 1999 during the East Timor crisis. Australia’s leadership in the international peacekeeping force supporting East Timor’s independence strained ties with Indonesia, which viewed the intervention as a violation of its sovereignty.

Howard had to deftly balance Australia’s commitment to East Timor with the need to maintain a stable relationship with Indonesia, underscoring the fragility of the relationship and the importance of Howard’s skilled diplomacy.

The East Timor intervention led to the termination of the security agreement, freezing relations for a time. By 2001, Howard was again focused on rebuilding ties, highlighting Indonesia’s transition to democracy as one of the most significant global developments since the fall of communism and stressing the need for “positive realism” in bilateral relations.

Tragic events would later bring the two nations closer: the Bali bombings in October 2002 and the Boxing Day Tsunami in December 2004. The bombings, which killed 202 people, including 88 Australians, deepened the connection between the two countries, united in grief and their resolve to combat terrorism. Howard and President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) emerged as key allies in the fight against terrorism.

The tsunami, which hit Indonesia hardest, claiming more than 300,000 lives and leaving millions homeless, further cemented the bond between the two nations. Australia responded with a $1 billion aid package — the largest in its history  —focused on rebuilding infrastructure and restoring communities, demonstrating a deep commitment to its neighbour. Aceh was Howard’s breakthrough moment in relations with Indonesia.

The relationship was tested again over issues of sovereignty and human rights in early 2006. Australia’s decision to grant temporary protection visas to 42 West Papuan refugees led Indonesia to temporarily recall its ambassador from Canberra. Although Howard and Yudhoyono restored relations by June, this incident underscored the ongoing complexity of the relationship, and the constant attention it required.

Fast forward to today, and the relationship between Australia and Indonesia has continued to evolve. The recent signing of a defence cooperation agreement by Albanese and Subianto marks a further step forward in deepening defence and security ties.

However, stark differences between the approaches of Howard and Albanese are becoming apparent. Albanese needs to go beyond signing agreements; he needs a breakthrough moment that rivals Howard’s consequential legacy.

Howard’s leadership was characterised by bold actions and a clear vision of Australia’s role in the region. In contrast, Albanese’s approach appears more cautious. Merely signing agreements without delivering substantial outcomes may not be enough to strengthen and elevate the Australia-Indonesia relationship to its full potential.

As Australia and Indonesia celebrate 75 years of bilateral diplomatic relations and Albanese prepares to attend the Indonesian presidential inauguration in October  — a tradition initiated by Howard  — he has a unique opportunity to steer this relationship in a more profound direction. Simply riding a bicycle around the presidential palace, as he has done before, will not suffice.

What could be the bold, sweeping gesture? A major expansion of free university placements for Indonesian students; a standing joint patrol force for the waters between the two countries; or perhaps a collaboration in building patrol boats at Henderson, WA, and Surabaya.

The specifics of the initiative are less important than its scale: it needs to be significant. Given Prabowo’s military background, it should ideally have a strong defence component.

Albanese could do worse than pick up the phone and seek advice from Howard.

Andrew Blyth is the John Howard Fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies