Donate NowThe CSIRO just dropped a new draft of their annual GenCost report which claims renewables once again have the lowest cost range of any new electricity generation source. But does the CSIRO’s latest analysis of nuclear and renewables hold up to scrutiny? In this video, we do a deep-dive into the 2024-25 GenCost report. We show you how the CSIRO still hasn’t fixed their nuclear analysis and take you through their incredibly opaque and at times self-contradictory cost estimates for renewables. Checking GenCost’s modelling is tricky given the CSIRO have not released all their data and assumptions. Watch until the end to find out why.
Analysis of storage costs: Difference in storage depth (GWh) between 2037-38 (when utility-scale solar and wind hit 92%) and 2024-25 in the 2024 ISP Step Change ODP was multiplied by GenCost capital costs ($/kWh). Coordinated CER was added to the shallow storage category, as GenCost assumes all batteries in 2024 analysis are utility-scale. Cethana storage depth was subtracted from deep storage total. Shallow storage (2 hour batteries) and medium storage (8 hour batteries) were assumed to have a 20-year economic life in accordance with GenCost. Deep storage (24 hr pumped hydro), Snowy 2.0, Borumba and Cethana were assumed to have a 30-year economic life in accordance with GenCost’s treatment of generators. A 5.99% discount rate was applied in accordance with GenCost. Total storage costs ($/MWh) were calculated by dividing the annualised storage payment by the utility-scale wind and solar energy delivered in 2037-38 in the 2024 ISP. Explanation of our adjusted values: The nuclear capacity factors range from 72% (consistent with GenCost methodology of using 10% below average capacity factor, which GenCost states is 80% globally for nuclear plants) and 93% (US average). The point estimate uses a 90% capacity factor and a fuel cost of $0.91/GJ (2024 GenCost average). The renewables capacity factors range from 32% for solar and 48% for wind (max capacity factors in 2024 ISP) to 19.7% for solar and 28.9% for wind.