Cutting gas risks plunging Australia into blackouts

For years, anti-gas activists have campaigned to eliminate gas from Australia’s energy landscape. Their vision is a utopia powered entirely by renewables.

But the reality is far more complex. If these campaigns succeed, Australia could face a wave of blackouts due to the inherent downtime in renewable energy sources like wind and solar.

The Australian Energy Market Operator’s own 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP) starkly outlines the risks. While renewables are being touted to dominate the National Electricity Market, they require firming support to ensure reliability.

The ISP predicts a near doubling of electricity demand by 2050. To meet this demand, gas-fired generation remains essential.

Already, the transition is exposing vulnerabilities. In Victoria, recent cold spells combined with reduced wind output led to warnings of potential gas shortages, demonstrating the gaps that renewables alone cannot fill.

Gas still provides 42% of the energy used by Australian manufacturers and remains critical to balancing the grid, especially during extreme weather events and periods of low renewable output.

Ignoring this reality could have devastating consequences. A coordinated reduction in coal-fired capacity before firming infrastructure is ready risks plunging entire regions into darkness.

As AEMO and industry experts have repeatedly warned, delays in gas infrastructure investments due to regulatory hurdles and public opposition could leave the nation in a precarious position by the late 2020s.

We have significant onshore gas reserves to tap into. Narrabri alone could service the east coast for 20 years, Beetaloo has massive reserves in the centre, and Western Australia also has immense holdings.

Further, the infrastructure is largely in place, but governments have been actively stopping development — for very poor reasons.

If activists succeed in halting gas development, the energy system will fail when we need it most.

Grahame Campbell is a renowned infrastructure expert with particular expertise in the energy sector, and the author of Centre for Independent Studies papers on infrastructure and resources issues.