Winners and losers of 2018

Is it possible to make sense of a tumultuous year in Australia politics (as if there is any other kind these days)?

It’s fair to say that those on the centre left probably look back and see a mostly positive year with a couple of key risks. And pretty much everyone else sees it as a bad year with a couple of rays of hope.

There is little doubt the biggest winner of 2018 is Labor. Not only did they win a thumping victory in Victoria, and a slew of federal by-elections, but it’s clear that if Bill Shorten has another six months like the last twelve, he will be Prime Minister next Christmas.

That doesn’t mean Labor hasn’t had its share of problems, including the dramas surrounding Emma Husar. And Labor’s policies to bring down house prices probably looked a lot less threatening when prices were growing by double digits than they do now they are falling.

Nor has Shorten been perfect. His uncertainty on what company tax cuts Labor would repeal betrayed weakness, and his personal polling has rarely been better than poor.

But the Liberals haven’t really laid a glove on him because every time Shorten has made a misstep or displayed weakness, the Coalition have hit the self-immolation button. Better still for Labor, every time the government have stepped out of their napalm shower, the Greens have jumped in.

However, some risks remain. A big one is the mistake Tony Abbott made in 2013: playing it ultra-safe to protect a big lead in the polls. Abbott handcuffed his future government by ruling out a bunch of potentially controversial policies for fear of scaring the horses.

The recent ALP conference showed the first hint that Labor, having boldly set out a number of alternative policies, is heading down the same path, particularly on border security. Voters have little tolerance for the pretence of policy unity before an election followed by a free-for-all afterwards.

Speaking of dysfunctional policy stoushes, energy has been an ongoing disaster for the government. More than a year of painstaking policy development led not to lower energy prices but yet another leadership challenge and yet another Prime Minister.

And to what end? The conspirators in the challenge got their target out but not their man in. The former Prime Minister (the second one) has gone on the cause more trouble out than in (much like the first one). Oh … and the polls dropped several points.

Not to mention that the government lost its majority in the house of Representatives and with it complete control over the legislative agenda, as shown by how close they came to losing a vote on the floor of the House at the end of the parliamentary year.

Indeed, on the Liberal side you’d be hard pressed to find someone who felt like they’d had a really good year.

The Liberals can claim they finally got the budget back into surplus. This is an achievement that has eluded Labor and the Coalition for a decade.

Of course the dividend from this is far from certain. First, the surplus is small enough that if anything untoward happens between now and the end of next financial year, it will disappear.

But perhaps the greater concern is that there is little evidence the electorate cares more about fiscal sustainability than it does about handouts and increased government spending.

Of course it could be worse. Factional infighting and scandals have caused huge damage to both the Nationals and the Greens. The Greens in particular, who only a few years ago looked like a party in ascendance, have lost all momentum. Neither party could be looking forward to the election with confidence.

Even on the cross bench, some stars are ascending (especially those in the lower house), while some may be in decline. A number of minor party senators face an uphill battle to be re-elected next year in the absence of preference harvesting.

One Nation remains an enigma. They may get a number of Senators elected, or none. They may start with a several Senators and end up with none.

Lost in all the politics were a number of policy questions that were raised this year — energy, tax, welfare, and Indigenous affairs, to name just a few — and very few answers were found. Yet, with a NSW election in March and a federal election likely soon after, there is a good chance we will finally get some clarity on the policy direction of the country next year.

At a minimum, at least the voters will get their chance to have a say.

Simon Cowan is Research Director at the Centre for Independent Studies.