There is no question that what has happened in Syria is a major plus for Israel. First, the fall of Assad cuts off the key conduit in Syria through which Iranian arms get to Hezbollah, at least for now. Second, the loss of Syria damages Iran’s position in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, I still believe Israel is in serious trouble for the following reasons:
- Israel has not come close to decisively defeating Hamas, its declared goal; and Israel is stuck in Gaza.
- Israel has not come close to decisively defeating Hezbollah, which is why Israel continues to strike southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire, and why many Israelis are unhappy about the ceasefire and think Israel should not have agreed to it.
- Israel is an apartheid state, as detailed in reports by Amnesty International, B’tselem, and Human Rights Watch. Unless Israel can ethnically cleanse the 7.3 million Palestinians living inside of Greater Israel, apartheid will remain in place for the foreseeable future. And we all remember what happened to apartheid South Africa.
- Israel is guilty of genocide in Gaza as Amnesty International makes clear in a recent report.
- The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Indeed, General Moshe Ya’alon, the former IDF chief of staff and former defense minister, has effectively sided with the ICC by accusing Israel of ethnic cleansing and war crimes in Gaza.
- Israel’s reputation around the world is in tatters.
- Although Iran was on the losing side in Syria, it remains a formidable antagonist for Israel.
- Iran is closer than ever to become a nuclear weapons state, a hugely dangerous development for Israel made more likely by events in Syria.
- The wicked centrifugal that were tearing at the fabric of Israeli society before October 7 (remember all the talk of civil war) are still there and one might argue they have been exacerbated by events since then.
- Israel has become profoundly dependent on the US for its security, a position it has long sought to avoid, preferring instead to provide for its own security.
There is no question that the US continues to support Israel unconditionally. Nor is there any question that the Israel lobby has done an excellent job of shutting down protests over Gaza on college campuses and limiting criticism of Israel in the mainstream media. But to do this, it has had to play smash-mouth politics out in the open. In the process, Israel’s supporters in the US (and the West more generally) have become a major threat to liberal values like free speech and freedom of assembly. This is not going to change anytime soon, because acting ruthlessly is essential if the lobby is going to continue defending an apartheid state that is committing genocide. I find it hard to believe that this story has a happy ending.
All of this is to say that if I were speaking today at CIS about Israel, I would modify my comments somewhat given events in Syria. But I would still argue that Israel is in deep trouble.
Two other speakers at CIS events offered contrasting views to Prof Mearsheimer: John Spencer, an urban warfare authority who spoke on how the second Trump presidency could affect the Middle East; and Bret Stephens, who says no Israeli government is going to agree to a Palestinian state in the West Bank if it risks resembling Gaza.
