The Thinning Blue Line - The Centre for Independent Studies

The Thinning Blue Line

The likelihood that a criminal will be caught after committing an offence is an important deterrent for potential offenders. However, on average across Australia, the number of police has not increased significantly enough to combat rising crime.

  • Reported serious crime (homicide, rape/sexual assault, assault, robbery, break and enter, and motor vehicle theft) has risen around 450% since 1964.
  • Across Australia, the number of police per 10,000 people has risen by about 37% between 1964 and 2000. But the growth rate of serious crime outstripped the increase in police more than tenfold.
  • In 1964 there were some 225 police officers per 1,000 serious crimes. In 2000 this number fell to just under 60.
  • The proportion of crimes cleared fell by nearly one-third between 1964 and 2001. In 2001 only roughly 22% of serious crimes were cleared.

The statistics seem to demonstrate that we require more police if we are to effectively combat rising crime. But increased police numbers must be accompanied by strategic deployment of the increased resources to be effective.

To gauge the number of new police requires a focus on what we need our police to be doing and whether there are enough police to do that effectively. The best use of police resources is where public debate needs to be centred.

Nicole Billante is a Research Assistant at The Centre for Independent Studies.